Long Range Forecast: 'Argo', 'Here Comes the Boom', & 'Seven Psychopaths'

Featured Stories - on August 18, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff

oct12.pngThis week, we've added three new films to our Long Range Forecast: Ben Affleck's Argo, Here Comes the Boom and Seven Psychopaths.  All three films are currently scheduled for release on Friday, October 12.

Argo

PROS:

- Ben Affleck has revived his career as an actor while establishing himself as a quality director for the masses. The critical and commercial success of Gone Baby Gone and The Town should help the appeal of this.
- Potentially early Oscar bait that could help extend its legs.
- Similar Fall release date as The Town.
- Online reactions to the trailer have been quite positive. 

CONS:

- A potentially less mainstream-friendly plot than The Town which could give it more of a Munich or Body of Lies-type of October run.
- Competition from two other star-driven vehicles: Taken 2's second weekend (if it takes off) and Killing Them Softly opening one week later.

Here Comes the Boom

PROS:

- Kevin James has his fair share of an audience.
- This is the first mainstream comedy to release since The Campaign in early August, so demand should boost the upfront appeal.
- Has a better chance of bringing in family audiences than The Dilemma did. 

CONS:

- James hasn't top-lined a hit since Paul Blart three year and a half years ago and is still proving his ability as a solo draw.  His last two flicks were box office disappointments (The Dilemma and Zookeeper).
- With audiences saving money for the holidays and a fair amount of competition in the October market, this is the kind of movie that could easily be overlooked in theaters.
- James being in a more serious role (by his standards) is a tough sell, but there is also a chance that it might just interest his fans. 

Seven Psychopaths

PROS:

- A relatively well-known ensemble cast.
- In Bruges (which shared the same director) has a very dedicated fanbase, but on the other hand it isn't a very big one. 

CONS:

- The ensemble, however, isn't really made up of box office stars.
- Coming from the director of In Bruges, this R-rated comedy isn't likely to be everyone's cup of tea.
- Will have to deal with the direct competition from Argo, and likely will have to do so with a smaller location count.

Notable changes on our forecast this week include Premium Rush, Hit & Run and The Possession.  Additionally, The Apparition has been removed from the chart as Warner Bros. has decided to give it only a semi-wide release.

Check out our predictions for these and other films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Seven Psychopaths Oct 12, 2012 CBS Films
 $6,000,000 $19,000,000
Argo Oct 12, 2012 Warner Bros.
 $18,000,000 $60,000,000
Here Comes the Boom Oct 12, 2012 Sony / Columbia
 $15,000,000 $47,000,000
Sinister Oct 5, 2012 Lionsgate / Summit
 $10,000,000 $25,000,000
Taken 2 Oct 5, 2012 Fox
 $34,000,000 $102,000,000
Frankenweenie Oct 5, 2012 Disney
 $20,000,000 $74,000,000
Pitch Perfect Oct 5, 2012 Universal
 $6,000,000 $17,000,000
Won't Back Down Sep 28, 2012 Fox
 $7,000,000 $23,000,000
Looper Sep 28, 2012 Sony / TriStar
 $21,000,000 $65,000,000
Hotel Transylvania Sep 28, 2012 Sony / Columbia
 $22,000,000 $68,000,000
End of Watch Sep 21, 2012 Open Road
 $14,000,000 $39,000,000
Trouble with the Curve Sep 21, 2012 Warner Bros.
 $16,000,000 $60,000,000
Dredd Sep 21, 2012 Lionsgate
 $13,000,000 $35,000,000
House at the End of the Street Sep 21, 2012 Relativity Media
 $22,000,000 $63,000,000
Resident Evil: Retribution Sep 14, 2012 Sony / Screen Gems
 $23,000,000 $52,000,000
Finding Nemo 3D Sep 14, 2012 Disney
 $24,000,000 $68,000,000
The Words Sep 7, 2012 CBS Films
 $10,000,000 $29,000,000
The Possession Aug 31, 2012 Lionsgate
 $21,000,000* $43,000,000
Lawless Aug 29, 2012 Weinstein Company
 $14,000,000† $35,000,000
Premium Rush Aug 24, 2012 Sony / Columbia
 $9,000,000 $28,000,000
Hit & Run Aug 22, 2012 Open Road Films
 $8,000,000 $21,000,000

† = 3-day weekend (Friday through Sunday)
* = 4-day weekend (Friday through Monday)

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this article.

Tags: Here Comes the Boom, Seven Psychopaths, Argo

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