Long Range Forecast: 'Ice Age: Continental Drift' & 'Ted'

Featured Stories - on May 18, 2012 by BOXOFFICE Staff

jul13.pngIce Age: Continental Drift and Seth MacFarlane's Ted have been added to our Long Range Forecast this week.  Both films are currently scheduled to open nationwide on Friday, July 13.

Ice Age: Continental Drift

PROS:

- The first three films have been very consistent, pulling higher unadjusted grosses with each entry.
- July is devoid of any other animated or family movies, so staying power will be very strong.
- The third film surprised many with its $196 million gross during summer three years ago. Legs were solid, meaning reception was probably good enough to continue carrying the goodwill into this one.
- Opening weekend could be soft, but it should hold very well in the weeks after The Dark Knight Rises opens.

CONS:

- Franchise fatigue inevitably sets in with live-action films.  Animated series aren't immune to it either.
- Being preceded by Madagascar 3 and Brave might remove some of the upfront demand, although having nearly one-third of the entire summer's family market to itself could negate this.
- Theater traffic may be subdued on this weekend coming off a major holiday weekend.
- The close proximity to The Dark Knight Rises could hurt it a bit more than the close proximity of Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs to Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen.

Ted

PROS:

- MacFarlane has his fan base thanks to Family Guy and American Dad (mostly the former).
- There aren't many R-rated comedies out there this summer, especially for guys.
- Wahlberg is something of a draw.  Playing against type could also help out here.  The Other Guys helped his comedy credit and he could help this appeal to those outside the MacFarlane fan base.
- The extended footage brought the house down at CinemaCon, often a good indication of which comedies will do well.  This is a major contender for "sleeper" status.
- With The Dictator performing softly, and That's My Boy surrounded by "iffy" buzz, the audience for this could be absolutely starved come July.

CONS:

- Despite having Wahlberg, getting this movie to appeal to women (or even mainstream audiences) is going to be a huge challenge.
- MacFarlane's fan base is untested at a theatrical level.
- Transitioning from television to movies is incredibly hard for some comedic performers.  See Trey Parker and Matt Stone's (of South Park fame) 1998 flop BASEketball and the mediocre performance of Team America: World Police.
- The Dark Knight Rises.  We've seen the effect that The Avengers had on its competition, and The Dark Knight Rises could bring more of the same.

Notable changes on our list this week include the upcoming Men In Black 3, Rock of Ages, and Savages.

Check out our predictions for these and other upcoming films in the table below.

Title Release Date Distributor Opening Weekend Cumulative
Ted (2012) Jul 13, 2012 Universal
 $19,000,000 $57,000,000
Ice Age: Continental Drift Jul 13, 2012 Fox
 $59,000,000 $200,000,000
Savages Jul 6, 2012 Universal
 $14,000,000 $45,000,000
Katy Perry: Part of Me 3D Jul 5, 2012 Paramount
 $17,000,000† $53,000,000
The Amazing Spider-Man Jul 3, 2012 Sony / Columbia
 $64,000,000† $233,000,000
Magic Mike Jun 29, 2012 Warner Bros.
 $22,000,000 $78,000,000
Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection Jun 29, 2012 Lionsgate
 $19,000,000 $43,000,000
People Like Us Jun 29, 2012 Disney
 $6,500,000 $23,000,000
Seeking a Friend for the End of the World Jun 22, 2012 Focus
 $13,000,000 $49,000,000
Brave Jun 22, 2012 Disney
 $58,000,000 $220,000,000
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter Jun 22, 2012 Fox
 $21,000,000 $53,000,000
That's My Boy Jun 15, 2012 Sony / Columbia
 $30,000,000 $85,000,000
Rock of Ages Jun 15, 2012 Warner Bros.
 $33,000,000 $125,000,000
Prometheus Jun 8, 2012 Fox
 $58,000,000 $200,000,000
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted Jun 8, 2012 Paramount / DreamWorks
 $42,000,000 $140,000,000
Snow White and the Huntsman Jun 1, 2012 Universal
 $60,000,000 $165,000,000
Men in Black 3 May 25, 2012 Sony / Columbia
 $85,000,000* $195,000,000
Chernobyl Diaries May 25, 2012 Warner Bros.
 $15,000,000* $31,000,000

* = 4-day weekend (Friday through Monday)
† = 3-day weekend (Friday through Sunday)

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill and Shawn Robbins contributed to this article.

Tags: Ice Age: Continental Drift, Ted

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