Weekend Predictions: 'Little Fockers,' 'True Grit' and 'Gulliver's Travels'
Featured Stories - on December 21, 2010 by Phil Contrino
Rooster Cogburn and Gulliver will be no match for the Focker/Byrnes family over the holiday weekend. Universal's Little Fockers will easily grab the #1 spot.
The Meet the Parents franchise is incredibly lucrative, so Meet the Fockers definitely has big shoes to fill. 2000's Meet the Parents brought in more than $296 million worldwide, while Meet the Fockers tallied $433 million. Unfortunately, critics have not been kind to the third installment, and all signs to point to a noticeable dip in quality. But even if audiences don't love Little Fockers as much as the previous films, the opening weekend rush will still be healthy thanks to strong brand recognition alone. After that, the comedy may have a tough time keeping up with its predecessors.
According to Boxoffice.com's latest WebWatch report, Little Fockers holds a respectable 7.46% share of online opinions among unreleased films. For the Universal release to be showing even that much activity is definitely a promising sign. Little Fockers is the type of film that doesn't need to generate a ton of pre-release conversation to be successful. Moviegoers show up almost instinctively.
The Little Fockers page on Facebook has built up a very healthy following with nearly 260,000 supporters, and it has tacked on more than 12,000 new fans since Sunday night. On Twitter, Little Fockers is easily inspiring more tweets than Couples Retreat.
As of 2 p.m. PT, Fandango.com is reporting that Little Fockers is responsible for 8% of daily sales.
Little Fockers should rake in $43 million at 3,536 locations from Friday-Sunday and $65 million from Wednesday-Sunday.
True Grit finds the Coen Brothers taking on a genre—the western—that fits them like a glove. Combine that natural combination with the star power of Jeff Bridges and Matt Damon and it becomes clear that True Grit will become a solid earner for Paramount. The Coens are known for being cold and distant in a lot of their films, but there's a warmth to True Grit that audiences are bound to respond to. Parents looking to forget the experience of enduring Yogi Bear will flock to this remake.
Since it's bound to skew older, True Grit isn't exactly on fire on Facebook and Twitter. Even though the film's most active page on Facebook has only around 5,400 fans, that's not cause for concern. Both The Town and Unstoppable both had about the same number, and they opened strong. On Twitter, True Grit is outpacing The Town and Invictus.
Fandango is reporting that True Grit is responsible for a healthy 7% of daily sales as of 2 p.m. PT.
Look for True Grit to snag $17.5 million at 3,047 locations from Friday-Sunday and $26.0 million from Wednesday-Sunday.
Gulliver's Travels has "dud" written all over it. 20th Century Fox is not giving the Jack Black vehicle an aggressive marketing campaign, and that's never a good sign for a Christmas tentpole.
Online signs do not point to a strong opening for Gulliver's. According to WebWatch, the comedy boasts only a 2.6% market share of online opinions among unreleased films.
On Facebook, Gulliver's official page has only slightly more than 1,000 fans. That's disastrous. Even Marmaduke mustered 2,300 fans the day before its release. Twitter activity provides no reassurance since Gulliver's trails Yogi Bear and Legends of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole.
Fandango is reporting that Gulliver's has yet to crack the top five sellers list. That's a bad sign for a film aimed at families.
Opening on Christmas Day, Gulliver's Travels should manage $10.0 million from around 2,400 locations during its first two days in theaters.
Check out our top 10 predictions in the table below.
|Title||Release Date||Distributor|| Weekend Gross ||Cumulative|
|Little Fockers||Dec 22, 2010||Universal
|TRON: Legacy||Dec 17, 2010||Disney
|True Grit (2010)||Dec 22, 2010||Paramount
|Gulliver's Travels (2010)||Dec 25, 2010||Fox
|Yogi Bear||Dec 17, 2010||Warner Bros.
|Black Swan||Dec 3, 2010||Fox Searchlight
|The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader||Dec 10, 2010||Fox
|Tangled||Nov 24, 2010||Disney
|The Fighter||Dec 10, 2010||Paramount
|The King's Speech||Nov 26, 2010||Weinstein Company
Additional reporting by Daniel Garris and Alex Edghill.