Weekly Anticipation Index: 'Ice Age 3: Dawn of the Dinosaurs' and 'Public Enemies'
Featured Stories - on May 09, 2009 by Phil Contrino
Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs and Public Enemies will try to kick off July with a bang.
The month of July will begin with two radically different potential blockbusters. 20th Century Fox will continue its lucrative Ice Age franchise, while Universal will deliver Public Enemies, a dark cops and robbers drama from acclaimed director Michael Mann.
Both films will be released on Wednesday, July 1 which will give them an early jump on the weekend. However, their respective weekend hauls will be hurt by the fact that the 4th of July falls on a Saturday this year.
While Fox's animation division still has yet to achieve the same level of success that Disney/Pixar and DreamWorks Animation have, the Ice Age franchise has proven to be a very reliable one. The first film in the series was able to open with $46.3 million domestically ($57.3 million when adjusted for inflation) back in 2002 before grossing an impressive $176.4 million ($218.4 million adjusted) by the end of its run. Meanwhile, 2005's Ice Age: The Meltdown opened with $68 million domestically ($74.5 million adjusted) on its way to $195.3 million domestically ($214.1 million adjusted). Dawn of the Dinosaurs will be shown in 3D, which means that its box office haul will benefit from pricier tickets. Plus, by the time Dawn of the Dinosaurs rolls out, family audiences will be ready for a new animated flick as UP, which opens on May 29, begins to slowly taper off.
Coming off the commercial and critical disaster that was 2006's Miami Vice, Mann is desperately in need of a hit. The fact that Johnny Depp and Christian Bale headline the cast of Enemies means that the director is almost guaranteed to land just that. Both actors are at the height of their box office power thanks to their involvement in such blockbuster films as the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise and Christopher Nolan's two Batman films. Since it's a period piece, Enemies will appeal more to older audiences and that means its domestic gross may be spread out a little bit more rather than being dominated by the opening frame. Teenage crowds may be enticed by the presence of Depp and Bale, but they will likely be turned off by Mann's contemplative, deliberately-paced approach to filmmaking.
Check out our early predictions for both films below.
|Weekly Anticipation Index, May 9, 2009|
|Title||Release Date||Distributor||Opening Weekend||Cumulative|
|Angels & Demons||May 15||Sony||$68M||$170M|
|Terminator Salvation||May 21||Warner Bros.||$60M||$185M|
|Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian||May 22||Fox||$53M||$195M|
|Dance Flick||May 22||Paramount||$18M||$52M|
|Drag Me to Hell||May 29||Universal||$18M||$42M|
|Land of the Lost||June 5||Universal||$35M||$100M|
|The Hangover||June 5||Warner Bros.||$27M||$105M|
|Imagine That||June 12||Paramount||$20M||$62M|
|The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3||June 12||Sony||$27M||$85M|
|The Proposal||June 19||Disney||$24M||$90M|
|Year One||June 19||Sony/ Columbia||$31M||$82M|
|Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen||June 24||DreamWorks/ Paramount||$95M||$350M|
|My Sister's Keeper||June 26||Warner Bros./ New Line||$14M||$45M|
|Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs||July 1||Fox||$60M||$220M|
|Public Enemies||July 1||Warner Bros./ New Line||$35M||$130M|
Additional reporting by Daniel Garris.