Long Range Forecast: 'Black Nativity', 'Frozen', 'Homefront', & 'Oldboy'

Four films have been added to our Long Range Forecast this week, all of which are slated to open on Wednesday, November 27 for the extended Thanksgiving weekend.

Black Nativity

PROS:

- The ensemble cast led by Forest Whitaker, Angela Bassett, Jennifer Hudson, and Tyrese Gibson.
- The story's holiday setting coincides with its release date very well.
- Strong counter-programming for urban audiences.

CONS:

- Contemporary musicals are hit or miss at the box office.
- Could struggle to break outside its target audience.

Frozen

PROS:

- Never bet against an animated Disney film released around the holidays. The recent success of Tangled and Wreck-It Ralph proves that.
- If Free Birds fails to take off, Frozen will be the first appealing animation for kids and families since September's Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2.

CONS:

- With respect to Kristen Bell and Josh Gad, the voice cast lacks any star names to entice adult crowds with.
- The animation box office slump that kicked in after summer's Despicable Me 2 could continue through the end of the year.

Homefront

PROS:

- Stars ason Statham and James Franco have their share of individual followings.
- Fans of B-grade action films will eat this one up.

CONS:

- Is Thanksgiving really the best time to release an R-rated thriller about a meth druglord? We don't think so.
- Neither Statham nor Franco are reliable draws. Both stars have their share of duds. 

Oldboy (2013)

PROS:

- The original 2003 South Korean film has become something of a modern cult classic.
- Josh Brolin and Samuel L. Jackson bring some needed star appeal.

CONS:

- The original film isn't well known outside of its niche fan base.
- Neither Brolin nor Jackson have shown a consistent ability to deliver strong box office numbers on their own. 
- Director Spike Lee is known for polarizing audiences.  

Notable changes on our forecast this week include Captain Phillips (up) and Machete Kills (down).

Check out our forecast for these and other upcoming films in the table below.

* = 3-day weekend (Fri-Sun)

Phil Contrino, Daniel Garris, Alex Edghill, and Shawn Robbins contributed to this report.